Quantum ComputingTimeline Predictions
Given their timelines, here's when we should expect quantum computers to achieve scientific breakthroughs, break encryption, and have widespread commercial impact.
Company/Organization | Isolated Scientific Breakthrough (probably in physics) | Break Encryption (RSA 2048) | Widespread Impact (probably in materials science) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atom Computing Scale neutral atoms into thousands of qubits for commercial use. | ~2026 | — | — | View Source |
 DARPA Scale quantum computers to 1000 qubits by 2028. | — | — | ~2033 | View Source |
 Fujitsu Build 10,000+ qubit superconducting machine by 2030, with fault-tolerant design. | — | — | ~2035 | View Source |
 Google Push error correction with superconducting qubits to reach beyond-classical computing. | ~2025 | ~2035 | — | View Source |
 IBM Grow superconducting qubits with modular chips and error correction to reach fault-tolerant systems. | ~2025 | — | ~2030 | View Source |
 IonQ Scale trapped-ion systems with photonic links and chip miniaturization. | ~2025 | ~2030 | ~2030 | View Source |
 Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) Quantum is still over 15–30 years away; GPUs will dominate until then. | — | — | <2045 | View Source |
 Microsoft Develop topological qubits for built-in error resistance, while advancing software and partnerships. | — | — | ~2035 | View Source |
 NIST Mandate shift to quantum-safe cryptography by 2030–2035. | — | ~2035 | — | View Source |
 PsiQuantum Build million-qubit photonic computers in data centers. | — | ~2030 | ~2029 | View Source |
 Quantinuum Use trapped ions with high fidelity to reach universal fault tolerance by 2030. | ~2025 | — | ~2030 | View Source |
 Rigetti Build modular superconducting systems, scaling to 1000+ qubits later this decade. | ~2025 | — | ~2029 | View Source |
 Vitalik Buterin Warns crypto must prepare for quantum threats sooner than many expect. | — | 20% chance of 2030 | — | View Source |
Timeline Categories
Isolated Scientific Breakthrough
(probably in physics)
When quantum computers will solve meaningful scientific problems faster than classical computers
Break Encryption
(RSA 2048)
When quantum computers can factor large numbers fast enough to break RSA 2048-bit encryption
Widespread Impact
(probably in materials science)
When quantum computing becomes commercially viable and widely adopted across industries
Best guess: Generating chemistry and materials data to train AI models. Many companies are now focusing on this.
Other Application Areas: Timeline Unclear
These areas showed early promise, but the path forward is less certain than initially hoped.
Optimization
The promise: Revolutionize logistics, finance, and supply chains.
Current status: The quantum advantage for optimization requires much larger systems than near-term machines. Classical algorithms continue to improve rapidly, making the target harder to reach.
Machine Learning
The promise: Exponential speedups for AI and neural networks.
Current status: Most ML tasks are better suited to classical hardware like GPUs and TPUs. The data loading bottleneck and specific quantum constraints limit practical advantages for typical ML workflows.
Genomics
The promise: Quantum pattern recognition could advance personalized medicine.
Current status: Genomic analysis primarily involves processing large datasets rather than quantum mechanical problems. Classical big data tools and AI are proving more practical for these data-intensive tasks.
Key insight: The clearest timelines exist for well-defined mathematical problems: factoring (for breaking encryption) and simulating molecules. Other applications have fuzzier targets.
Key Takeaway
The consensus seems to be 2030-2035 to break RSA-2048. Commercial applications are further out.
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